Carmel Valley Market & Community Update – End of October 2025
Welcome to our latest Carmel Valley Market & Community Update. Below is a current snapshot of detached home activity, pricing trends, and what we’re observing on the ground as we move into the final quarter of 2025.
Our Expert Insight
As of October 27th, there are 34 active listings in Carmel Valley and 12 pending. Over the last 14 days, the market saw 5 new listings, 11 go pending, and 12 close. Expanding to the past 30 days, there were 10 new listings, 17 pendings, and 9 closings. This signals a steady flow of transactions even as we move deeper into the fall season.
Inventory has tightened since midsummer, and buyer activity has begun to rebound modestly after a quiet stretch in late August and September. We’re also seeing renewed interest from buyers who were previously on the sidelines, encouraged by stabilizing rates and the expectation of lower borrowing costs in 2026.
Well-presented homes continue to attract competitive attention, while properties that require updates or show less favorably are taking longer to move. Seller motivation is mixed; some are standing firm on pricing, while others are becoming more flexible as the holidays approach.
Pricing Trends
2,000–3,000 SQFT homes: averaged $791/SQFT over the past 30 days
3,000–4,000 SQFT homes: averaged $780/SQFT over the past 30 days
Compared to the previous 90 days, the average price per square foot is down 5.71%, signaling continued price pressure even as days on market normalize. This softening has been most noticeable among homes in the 2,000–3,000 SQFT range, while larger homes have held value slightly better.
Interest Rates & Buyer Behavior
Mortgage rates have trended downward, with most 30-year fixed loans now hovering around 6%. Many lenders and economists anticipate rates dropping into the mid-5% range in the coming year. This has already begun to improve buyer confidence and could strengthen home prices if borrowing costs continue to ease. Buyers remain cautious but are showing renewed engagement, particularly when homes are priced strategically or recently upgraded.
On-the-Ground Insight
The Carmel Valley market slowed in mid-August, with many buyers pausing amid macroeconomic uncertainty. However, open house traffic has noticeably increased in October, suggesting that confidence is slowly returning. Buyers remain focused on perceived value, often seeking opportunities on homes that have lingered on the market.
Despite this, prices remain historically strong and inventory levels appear stable, pointing to a market that is adjusting rather than declining. Sellers who invest in presentation and pricing alignment continue to see success even in a more selective environment.
Key Takeaway
The Carmel Valley market is stabilizing after a slower late summer. While prices have adjusted slightly, the fundamentals remain solid: limited inventory, steady demand, and improving buyer sentiment as rates ease. As we approach year-end, this balance presents opportunities for both buyers seeking value and sellers offering turnkey properties.
The Moore Realty Group
Your trusted Carmel Valley real estate experts
Download a the detailed Market Action Report for October 27, 2025.
