Carmel Valley Market & Community Update – Mid January 2026
Welcome to our latest Carmel Valley Market & Community Update. Below is a current snapshot of detached home activity, pricing trends, and what we’re seeing on the ground as the 2026 market begins to take shape.
Our Expert Insight
As of January 20th, Carmel Valley has 18 active listings and 8 homes currently pending. Over the past 14 days, the market recorded 8 new listings, 6 homes going pending, and 3 closings. Looking at the past 30 days, there have been 8 new listings, 7 pendings, and 7 closed sales.
This marks a clear shift from the extreme inventory constraints we saw at year-end. New listings have begun to return, signaling the start of the typical early-year inventory uptick. That said, 18 active homes remains very low supply for any time of year, and buyer demand continues to absorb listings at a steady pace.
Pricing Trends
2,000–3,000 SQFT homes: averaged $832/SQFT over the past 90 days.
3,000–4,000 SQFT homes: averaged $776/SQFT over the past 90 days.
Compared to the previous 90-day period, the average price per square foot is down 3.02%, reflecting continued but moderating pricing pressure. This trend remains most pronounced in the 3,000–4,000 SQFT segment, while homes in the 2,000–3,000 SQFT range have shown greater resilience.
Overall, pricing has stabilized at historically strong levels, particularly given the limited inventory environment.
Interest Rates & Buyer Behavior
Mortgage rates are sitting right around 6% for most 30-year fixed loans, with well-qualified buyers increasingly securing rates below 6%. The broader trend continues to move downward, improving affordability at the margins and strengthening buyer confidence.
Looking ahead, expectations for rates to move into the mid-5% range later in 2026 remain a key driver of buyer optimism and engagement.
On-the-Ground Insight
After slowing in mid-September, the market is showing early signs of renewed momentum. Buyers appear more confident as 2026 gets underway, encouraged by easing rate conditions and improving economic sentiment.
Inventory is beginning to rebuild seasonally. In just the last 14 days, 8 homes entered the market, a meaningful shift compared to the zero new listings in the prior 16-day period. While this growth is typical for January, overall supply remains constrained, and quality homes are continuing to move.
Buyers are still value-focused and hoping to find a “deal,” but the reality is that inventory remains tight and pricing remains strong, particularly for well-located, well-presented homes.
Key Takeaway
As we move deeper into Q1, the Carmel Valley market is transitioning out of its year-end slowdown. Inventory is slowly returning, interest rates are easing, and buyer sentiment is improving. While pricing has adjusted modestly, the fundamentals remain solid. With supply still limited, early-year listings are likely to benefit from continued buyer attention, especially if rates continue trending lower.
Best,
The Moore Realty Group
Your trusted Carmel Valley real estate experts
