Carmel Valley Market & Community Update – Middle of December 2025
Welcome to our latest Carmel Valley Market & Community Update. Below is a year-end snapshot of detached home activity, pricing trends, and what we’re seeing on the ground as we close out 2025 and look ahead to the new year.
Our Expert Insight
As of December 16th, there are just 23 active listings in Carmel Valley, with 11 homes currently pending. Over the past 14 days, the market saw 1 new listing, 3 homes go pending, and 9 closings. Looking at the past 30 days, only 2 homes came on the market, while 13 went pending and 16 sold.
This imbalance between new listings and sales has resulted in a significant contraction in inventory. While shrinking supply is typical for December, 23 active homes is exceptionally low for any time of year, underscoring how limited available options are for buyers heading into 2026.
Pricing Trends
2,000–3,000 SQFT homes: averaged $818/SQFT over the past 90 days.
3,000–4,000 SQFT homes: averaged $766/SQFT over the past 90 days.
Compared to the previous 90-day period, the average price per square foot is down 4.7%, reflecting continued, modest price pressure as days on market normalize. This adjustment has been most noticeable in the 3,000–4,000 SQFT segment, while smaller homes have shown greater price stability.
Despite these shifts, values remain historically strong, supported by limited inventory and long-term demand fundamentals in Carmel Valley.
Interest Rates & Buyer Behavior
Mortgage rates remain near 6% for most 30-year fixed loans, but the broader trend continues to point downward. Many buyers and lenders anticipate rates moving into the mid-5% range sometime in 2026, which is already improving sentiment and buyer confidence.
This expectation is keeping many buyers engaged, even if they are proceeding cautiously and focusing heavily on value.
On-the-Ground Insight
The market slowdown that began in mid-September has persisted into December, driven largely by macroeconomic uncertainty and seasonal factors. That said, buyer interest has not disappeared. Instead, it has become more selective.
We are consistently seeing more homes go pending than come to market, which is rapidly tightening supply. With so few active listings available, buyers searching for a “deal” are finding limited opportunities, especially on well-presented homes. While buyers remain price-conscious, the reality is that inventory constraints are now the dominant force shaping the market.
Key Takeaway
As we close out 2025, the Carmel Valley housing market is defined by extremely low inventory, steady buyer demand, and improving rate expectations. While pricing has adjusted modestly, the overall market remains resilient. With supply at unusually low levels and rates trending favorably, early 2026 could see renewed competition once new listings return to the market.
Best,
The Moore Realty Group
Your trusted Carmel Valley real estate experts
