Carmel Valley Market & Community Update – End of November 2025
Welcome to our latest Carmel Valley Market & Community Update. Below is a current look at detached home activity, pricing trends, and what we’re observing on the ground as we move through the holiday season and prepare to close out the year.
Our Expert Insight
As of November 25th, there are 33 active listings in Carmel Valley and 16 pending. Over the past 14 days, the market saw 5 new listings, 10 pendings, and 6 closings. Expanding to the past 30 days, there have been 14 new listings, 17 pendings, and 11 closings. This is a clear sign that even as the market transitions into the slower winter months, buyer activity remains consistent.
Notably, more homes have gone pending than have been listed, leading to a gradual tightening of supply. This is seasonally typical for November and December, as many sellers hold off until the new year. Despite lower overall activity, motivated buyers are still stepping up for well-priced, well-presented homes.
Pricing Trends
2,000–3,000 SQFT homes: averaged $822/SQFT over the past 90 days
3,000–4,000 SQFT homes: averaged $769/SQFT
Compared to the previous 90 days, the average price per square foot is down 4.7%, indicating continued mild pressure on pricing even as the market normalizes. The softening has been most pronounced among homes in the 3,000–4,000 SQFTrange, while smaller homes have remained relatively stable.
Still, prices are holding near historically strong levels, supported by low inventory and steady local demand.
Interest Rates & Buyer Behavior
Mortgage rates remain in the 6% range for most 30-year fixed loans, though we’ve seen a gradual downward trend over the past two months. Lenders and analysts continue to anticipate a move into the mid-5% range in 2026, which could further bolster buyer confidence and home values.
Buyers remain selective but increasingly optimistic, recognizing that any meaningful rate drops could quickly tighten supply and put upward pressure on prices.
On-the-Ground Insight
The market slowdown that began in mid-August has largely stabilized. Open house traffic has improved over the past month, and the ratio of pendings to new listings suggests healthy buyer engagement heading into the holidays.
While many buyers are still hoping to find a “deal,” the reality is that Carmel Valley home prices remain resilient, and the inventory is shrinking as sellers pause for the season. Homes that are priced in line with current market realities, and that present well, continue to move efficiently.
Key Takeaway
As 2025 winds down, the Carmel Valley market shows seasonal slowing but steady fundamentals. Inventory is contracting, rates are trending favorably, and buyer sentiment is gradually improving. This creates a balanced environment heading into 2026, where buyers with clear goals and sellers with turnkey properties can both find meaningful opportunities.
Best,
The Moore Realty Group
Your trusted Carmel Valley real estate experts
