Carmel Valley Market & Community Update – January 2026
Welcome to our first Carmel Valley Market & Community Update of 2026. Below is a snapshot of detached home activity, pricing trends, and what we’re seeing on the ground as the new year begins.
Our Expert Insight
As of January 5th, Carmel Valley has just 15 active listings, with 7 homes currently pending. Over the past 14 days, there were no new listings, 2 homes went pending, and 4 closings. Looking at the past 30 days, the data is even more telling: 0 new listings, 4 pendings, and 14 closed sales.
This level of imbalance is unusual. While low inventory is typical during the holidays, zero new listings over an entire month combined with 14 sales represents a significant supply constraint. With only 15 active homes available, Carmel Valley is operating at extremely low inventory levels, even by historical winter standards.
Pricing Trends
2,000–3,000 SQFT homes: averaged $814/SQFT over the past 90 days.
3,000–4,000 SQFT homes: averaged $782/SQFT over the past 90 days.
Compared to the prior 90-day period, the average price per square foot is down 3.49%, reflecting continued but moderating price pressure as the market transitions toward more normalized days on market. This adjustment has been primarily concentrated in the 3,000–4,000 SQFT segment, while smaller homes have remained relatively stable.
Importantly, pricing remains historically strong, particularly given the current supply constraints.
Interest Rates & Buyer Behavior
Mortgage rates continue to hover around 6% for most 30-year fixed loans, with a clear downward trend over recent months. Many buyers and lenders expect rates to move into the mid-5% range later in 2026, which is already improving buyer sentiment.
This expectation is keeping buyers engaged, even as they remain selective and value-focused.
On-the-Ground Insight
The market slowdown that began in mid-September extended through year-end, driven by seasonal patterns and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, buyer interest has not disappeared. Instead, demand has quietly persisted while sellers paused.
Over the last 30 days, no new homes entered the market while 14 sold, dramatically tightening supply. With inventory this constrained, buyers searching for a “deal” are finding limited opportunities; especially for well-located, well-presented homes.
While inventory is expected to rise modestly over the next couple of months as sellers re-enter the market, the current environment highlights how quickly supply can be absorbed when buyer demand remains intact.
Key Takeaway
As 2026 begins, the Carmel Valley housing market is defined by exceptionally low inventory, resilient buyer demand, and improving rate expectations. While prices have adjusted modestly, the market remains fundamentally strong. As new listings return in the coming months, competition is likely to re-emerge quickly, particularly if interest rates continue to trend lower.
Best,
The Moore Realty Group
Your trusted Carmel Valley real estate experts
