Carmel Valley Market & Community Update – Early February 2026
Welcome to our latest Carmel Valley Market & Community Update. Below is a current snapshot of detached home activity, pricing trends, and what we’re seeing on the ground as the 2026 market continues to take shape.
Our Expert Insight
As of February 2nd, Carmel Valley has 22 active listings and 14 homes currently pending. Over the past 14 days, the market recorded 6 new listings, 7 homes going pending, and 1 closed sale. Zooming out to the past 30 days, activity has increased meaningfully, with 15 new listings, 13 pendings, and 4 closed sales.
This data points to a clear seasonal reawakening of the market. New listings are returning after the typical year-end lull, and importantly, buyer demand is keeping pace with new supply. Nearly two-thirds of active inventory is already under contract, a strong signal that homes priced correctly are still attracting serious interest.
While inventory has risen modestly from January lows, 22 active homes remains very low supply for Carmel Valley, even by early-year standards. This is not a market flush with excess inventory, rather a market that is gradually normalizing while remaining fundamentally constrained.
Pricing Trends
Over the past 90 days, average pricing has broken down as follows:
- 2,000–3,000 SQFT homes: averaged $847 per square foot.
- 3,000–4,000 SQFT homes: averaged $781 per square foot.
Compared to the prior 90-day period, average price per square foot is up 0.04%, signaling a balanced market that is beginning to trend modestly upward as we move into the first quarter. This type of stabilization and early appreciation is typical for January and February, particularly following a slower fall and early winter.
One notable dynamic is the pricing gap between mid-sized and larger homes. Larger homes continue to trade at a meaningful per-square-foot discount, reflecting buyer sensitivity to total monthly payments rather than long-term value. For move-up buyers or families prioritizing space, this remains an important opportunity, while sellers of larger homes benefit most from strategic pricing and strong presentation.
The most notable pricing improvement relative to prior periods has been in the 3,000–4,000 SQFT segment, suggesting that buyers are becoming more comfortable stepping into higher price points as confidence improves.
Interest Rates & Buyer Behavior
Mortgage rates remain right around 6% for most 30-year fixed loans, with well-qualified buyers increasingly securing rates below 6%. While affordability remains a key consideration, the broader rate trend continues to move downward, which is helping buyers re-enter the market with greater confidence.
Even modest rate improvements are having an outsized psychological impact. Buyers are no longer waiting on the sidelines for perfect conditions. Many buyers are choosing to act ahead of anticipated rate declines later in 2026. Expectations for rates to move into the mid-5% range remain a meaningful driver of near-term demand.
On-the-Ground Insight
After slowing in mid-September, the Carmel Valley market is now firmly in its early-year recovery phase. Buyer sentiment has improved as interest rates ease and broader economic uncertainty becomes more manageable.
Inventory is clearly building. In just the last 14 days, 6 homes entered the market, a meaningful increase compared to the zero new listings seen in the final weeks of December. While this growth is typical for the season, overall supply remains constrained. New listings are being absorbed steadily, reinforcing that demand has not softened.
Buyers continue to search for value and negotiating opportunities, but today’s “deal” is less about distressed pricing and more about relative value, timing, and property fit. Prices remain historically strong, and the data suggests a market finding its footing rather than one under pressure.
What this means for Buyers & Sellers
For Buyers: Opportunities exist, particularly in larger homes and properties that are priced with today’s financing environment in mind. Acting early in the year can offer more leverage before spring competition intensifies.
For Sellers: Well-positioned homes are still moving quickly. Low overall inventory and steady buyer demand continue to support pricing, especially for homes that show well and are priced strategically from the start.
Key Takeaway
As February begins, the Carmel Valley housing market is transitioning into a more active and balanced phase. Inventory is gradually increasing, demand is keeping pace, interest rates are trending favorably, and buyer sentiment is improving. While supply remains limited, early-year momentum is building, setting the stage for a potentially competitive spring if current trends hold.
If you’re considering buying or selling in Carmel Valley this year, understanding these nuances, not just the headlines, can make a meaningful difference. Reach out to a member of our team if you would like to discuss the market in further detail.
Best,
Your trusted Carmel Valley real estate experts
